Our 9 Social Media Predictions for 2010

‘Tis the end of the year, and everyone is making their lists. Lists of top moments from 2009, and lists of predictions for 2010. So…I thought I would join in a little. Here are a few of my predictions for the world of Social Media for 2010. None of us has a crystal ball, but these are based on what I’ve observed and my intuition. Feel free to disagree (and I’m sure some of you will)!

1. Social Media goes mainstream – It already has for users, but in 2010 we’ll begin to see businesses take it more seriously. Big business. Small business. It is no longer “that thing,” but instead becomes a regular (and integral) part of marketing plans and budgets. Pepsi’s decision to sit out the Super Bowl advertising rush in lieu of a cause-related Social Media effort is a big step in this, and we can expect others to follow suit.

2. Traditional Media continues it’s decline – This is sort of a no-brainer. Traditional Media isn’t dying. But it will need to shift and embrace Social Media on a grander scale in order to stay relevant. Marketers are understanding that you don’t just do things because they used to work.

3. Facebook continues to grow, shift, and level off – Facebook’s growth this year has been nothing short of phenomenal. That growth will continue, but at a slower pace. We’ll also see a continuing shift in how Facebook works, especially as more businesses begin to figure out how to use the platform. Privacy and search will be among the biggest issues Facebook continues to deal with in 2010.

4. Twitter becomes more mainstream – A lot of analysts have focused on the slowing of Twitter’s growth during the last half of 2009. Some of this is real, while some of it is perceived; most studies don’t take into account the rapid growth in the use of 3rd party Twitter apps. But I think that in 2010 we’ll see more people adopting Twitter, and more of them will become regular users as opposed to experimenters. We won’t see as many people just dabbling then dropping out. This goes for both individual users and businesses.

5. The next big Social Media platform will emerge – I have no clue what it is, but right now everyone talks about Facebook and Twitter. Sometime in 2010 we will begin to see a new player poised to make waves. And don’t be surprised if it comes from one of the big guns: Google, Amazon, MSN, etc. And whatever it is, the next big platform will allow for much more user customization than any of its predecessors.

6. The Death of SEO – Well, that’s an exaggeration, but I do believe that SEO as we know it will shift drastically. It’s a lot harder to fake-out the search engines, and SEO will have to become much more organic and less contrived. And this shift will mean businesses will have to take a closer look at bringing their SEO efforts in house. SEO will be driven by real content and links, not by artificial and paid links. Overall, I think this is a great thing. Let’s focus on better online content and product, and get away from trying to manipulate the results artificially. Robert Scoble discusses this in 2010: The year SEO isn’t important anymore. Read it. I think he’s on to something. Also see my next point.

7. Moving closer to Web 3.0 – From Google Wave and real-time/social search to continued integration and convergence, we’ll have a better view of where the web is headed. Social Media is a huge component of this as we all become a part of what types of search results others find. Hard to wrap your mind around all of this, but search will become, a) easier b) more intuitive, and c) less daunting. What once took a lot of time and clicks will be reduced to fewer clicks, as the collected wisdom of the social web helps to guide us.

8. Openness goes mainstream – Despite privacy concerns, many of us, especially businesses, will become more transparent. This is a good thing, which I will be discussing in a blog very soon. Geo-tagging and other new technologies will make us more aware, though we’ll also be more cautious with what we put out there.

9. Social Causes become a more important part of marketing – The mantra for smart businesses in 2010 will be “Customers first, Causes are 2nd, my business is third.” Customers are already at the forefront of the Social Media equation, but now we will see more businesses utilizing SM to help good social causes. We are already seeing this with Pepsi, Whole Foods, and a lot of others. In fact, this is something business is learning from bands that for years have been supporting the One Campaign, Charity: Water, TWLOHA, and Blood:Water Mission, among others. Is it a gimmick? Perhaps, for some. But businesses that donate to causes will ingratiate themselves to their customers. Local businesses would do well to affiliate themselves with worthy local causes.

What are your thoughts on these? Feel free to disagree. Do you have any predictions of your own?

Tagged as: facebook, Marketing, seo, Social Media, Twitter

Joy Ike

I gotta good feeling that next Social Media star will come from Google since they practically rule the world already :)

...and don't forget Rice Bowls. Its a very small charity but they're wonderful!
www.ricebowls.org

share flag

spam
offensive
disagree
off topic

kmueller62

Oh, and as for Social Media already being mainstream, I'd say "Yes" for the general public, but still not yet for business. My definition of "mainstream" infers doing SM properly, not just throwing a FB page up there or having a Twitter account. My definition includes making it an integral part of your overall, integrated marketing plan.

@ethanD

heh, my 8 got converted to an emoticon 8)

re: Daniel

If social CRM takes off it will become quickly integrated with the current CRM platforms.

Thanks for your comments Ethan. And just for clarification, my "death of SEO" was more of a "death of SEO as we know it". We've already seen a number of top SEO firms have to make major changes to stay alive. I guess I could sum it up by saying..."They're on to us"....the idea of link juice is changing because we're learning that much of what we thought was link juice is bad for you.

My buzzwords for 2010? Natural and Organic. And I'm not talking about food.

Getting a jump on the 2010 predictions train I see :) Mine are scheduled for Jan 1st.

1) I would say that social media went mainstream in the latter half of 2009 and will continue to be mainstream in 2010.

2) Traditional media will decline but will also start rebranding itself and adding new media features to stem the decline.

3) I think Facebook will continue to grow, especially as lower demographics start joining.

4)I don't think twitter will get much more mainstream, and if #5 is correct then it will start declining.

5) I don't think the next shiny social media toy will come out this year, maybe at the end of the year.

6) SEO is far from dead

7) Agreed

8) Agreed but with a very large and vocal negative reaction from older generations.

9) Agreed but there will be backlash when people discover they have been duped by a few un ethical companies. One thing I have yet to see is social causes being a part of B2B marketing.

Good list and I'm looking forward to seeing how 2010 plays out.

Daniel, thanks for your comments, and I agree pretty much whole-heartedly. Still not fully convinced on CRM at its purest level, but I think it will be more integrated into existing platforms (possibly via Facebook connect, which I agree, is brilliant).

I think the one area I would part with you is the area of SEO, and I know it hits close to home for you. The problem that I see is that I have worked with a number of clients who have paid big bucks to reputable local SEO firms, only to see their rankings drop, mostly because of changes in the SE algorithms. Google isn't stupid, and neither is Bing. They can sniff out when link building hasn't happened organically. I still think the best SEO happens in-house in terms of good, relevant content. Part of my prediction re: SEO that I should have stated more clearly is that the search engines will be seriously changing their algorithms in 2010 in this direction. And part of that will be based on IP addresses that are clearly doing link building for multiple accounts will be downgraded.

I also believe that Social Media monitoring will be best done in house, but certainly third party monitoring will flourish for larger businesses that can afford it.

As for point 4 in your comment, I agree, and think that that spending is already under scrutiny. I think analytics for Social Media is a tricky thing and I'm not sure anyone has come up with the right configuration as of yet.

Daniel Klotz

Interesting predictions, Ken. I hope 2010 is indeed the year bad SEO-for-SEO's-sake dies, but performing well in search engines will remain extremely important and knowing where to focus your energies to do so will continue to require the involvement of experienced professionals.

Four predictions to add:

1. I agree that Facebook's growth rate in terms of new users is unsustainable through 2010, but I think we will continue to see astonishing growth in the amount of time people spend on the site. Right now the average user spends 50 minutes a day on Facebook. I expect that to go higher in 2010. Also, I expect Facebook Connect to get much bigger, so that when we're on the Web, we're rarely far from Facebook.

2. I'm with Jeremiah Owyang in thinking that Social CRM is a very hot sector to watch.

3. As more companies participate more actively on the social Web, social media monitoring will become much more important and valuable.

4. While companies will increase their overall spend on digital, they will at the same time put the spending under more scrutiny. If a website doesn't achieve measurable objectives, expect the agency that maintains it go get fired. In 2010, we won't figure out how to measure ROI on the Web perfectly, but it will become more important for agencies and consultants to demonstrate that what they're doing is making the company financially stronger.